Freight Market on the Verge of a Turnaround, Cass Report Suggests
After more than three years of persistent year-over-year declines, the U.S. freight market may finally be approaching a meaningful inflection point. According to the latest monthly report from Cass Information Systems, a positive turn in freight shipments now appears likely — and the data from May 2026 offers some of the most encouraging signs the industry has seen since the post-pandemic freight boom unwound. For shippers, carriers, and logistics professionals watching the market closely, this report deserves careful attention.
The Cass Freight Index is one of the most closely watched benchmarks in the transportation and logistics industry. Published monthly, it draws on actual freight invoice data from a broad cross-section of North American shippers, making it a reliable, real-world gauge of freight activity rather than a survey-based estimate. When Cass signals a shift, the market tends to listen.
May 2026 Data: The Smallest Decline in 18 Months
The multimodal shipments component of the Cass Freight Index declined just 1.2% year over year in May 2026 — the smallest year-over-year drop recorded in 18 months. While still technically a decline, the shrinking gap is a significant milestone for an industry that has endured 40 consecutive months of year-over-year volume contraction. Each successive narrowing of that gap brings the freight market one step closer to positive growth territory.
On a month-over-month basis, shipments rose 3.0% from April to May, a notable sequential jump that reflects growing momentum heading into the traditionally stronger summer and fall shipping seasons. On a seasonally adjusted basis, shipments dipped slightly by 0.3%, suggesting the raw month-over-month gain was partly driven by normal seasonal patterns — but the underlying trend still points in a constructive direction.
Looking at a two-year stacked comparison, which smooths out some of the volatility caused by unusual base periods, the 5.2% decline was the smallest recorded since February 2024. This longer-view metric reinforces the narrative that the freight market is making genuine, sustained progress toward recovery rather than experiencing a temporary blip.
What Is Driving the Improvement?
Several factors are converging to support a recovery in freight demand, and the Cass report highlights a few of the most important ones.
Rising Domestic Intermodal Volumes
One of the key drivers cited in the May data is an increase in domestic intermodal volumes. Intermodal freight — which involves moving goods in standardized containers across multiple modes of transportation, typically combining rail and truck — is often seen as a leading indicator of broader freight demand trends. When intermodal volumes rise, it generally signals that shippers are moving more goods over longer distances, which is a healthy sign for the overall supply chain.
Improving Spot Market Indicators
Beyond intermodal, the report notes that "many spot indicators suggest improving freight demand." Spot market rates and volumes are among the most sensitive real-time signals in transportation, as they reflect the immediate balance between available capacity and shipper demand. Spot market improvement, even before it filters through to contract rates, is often an early warning that the broader market is tightening.
Tight Inventories, Falling Tariffs, and a Soft Dollar
The Cass report also points to a trio of macroeconomic tailwinds that are supportive of demand growth. First, inventories across the supply chain are described as tight, meaning retailers and manufacturers will likely need to restock in the coming months — a process that generates freight movement. Second, tariffs are falling, which could stimulate trade flows and import activity. Third, the U.S. dollar is soft, which makes American exports more competitive globally and can boost outbound freight volumes. Together, these factors create a constructive backdrop for freight demand even if the recovery is not primarily consumer-led.
The Expenditures Index Tells an Even Stronger Story
While the shipments index is the headline number most people track, the Cass expenditures index — which measures total freight spend including fuel surcharges — paints an even more striking picture. In May 2026, the expenditures index jumped 7.5% year over year and surged 5.3% from April on a raw basis, or 4.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. These are substantial increases that reflect not just more shipments but meaningfully higher rates being paid per shipment.
This expenditures data is consistent with the supply-side rate recovery that began in late 2025, as trucking capacity tightened following years of carrier exits and reduced fleet investment. The combination of rising rates and gradually improving volumes is exactly the kind of environment that characterizes the early stages of a freight market upcycle.
The Truckload Linehaul Index, which strips out fuel to isolate the core rate component of truckload freight, rose 6.9% year over year and 7.5% on a two-year stacked basis. This confirms that the rate recovery is broad-based and not simply a function of fuel cost fluctuations.
What to Expect in the Second Half of 2026
Assuming historical seasonal volume patterns hold through the remainder of the year, the Cass Freight Index is projected to log a 1.8% year-over-year increase in the back half of 2026. That would mark the first sustained period of positive year-over-year freight volume growth since the market began its prolonged downturn — a milestone that would signal a true cyclical recovery rather than just a stabilization.
It is worth noting that Cass acknowledges this may not be a consumer-led recovery in the traditional sense. Consumer spending data has been mixed, and macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated. But inventory restocking cycles, trade policy shifts, and currency dynamics can drive freight demand independent of consumer confidence, and those forces appear to be aligning favorably right now.
Implications for Shippers and Carriers
For shippers, the message is clear: the era of abundant, cheap capacity that characterized 2023 and 2024 is drawing to a close. Rates are already rising meaningfully, and if volume recovery materializes as projected, securing capacity at favorable prices will become increasingly difficult through the back half of the year. Shippers who proactively engage with their carrier partners and lock in contract capacity now may be better positioned than those who wait.
For carriers, the outlook is more optimistic than it has been in years. After enduring an extended period of margin compression and volume weakness, the combination of improving demand and rising rates offers a path back to healthier profitability. Carriers that managed their cost structures through the downturn and maintained quality service levels are well positioned to benefit from the tightening market.
A Market in Transition
The May 2026 Cass Freight Index report is not a declaration that the freight market has fully recovered — but it is a compelling signal that the long-awaited inflection point is near. With 40 months of declines potentially giving way to positive growth, and with freight expenditures already rising sharply, the foundation for a durable recovery appears to be forming. All eyes will now be on June and July data to see whether the momentum continues to build.
For anyone with a stake in the transportation and logistics industry, the second half of 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal period worth watching closely.